Croatia will enter the EU in 2007 even without Romania and Bulgaria

“It is possible that Croatia will approach the EU individually, and not in a package. I have heard this from a number of high-level officials from various European countries,” said Croatia’s new Foreign Minister Miomir Žužul, who took the opportunity between the parliamentary elections and the forming of the government to launch a foreign policy offensive. In talking with representatives from the US and various European countries over the past month, Mr Žužul gathered information that helped him define the priorities in realising the basic foreign policy goals. During the interview we held at the Minister’s Office on Zrinjevac, that Mr Žužul wanted to enter even the last time the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) was in power, 5 foreign policy goals of the new government crystallised, as well as one national foreign policy goal. The new minister, former Croatian ambassador to Washington, is introducing the so called “balance policy” between Washington, Bruxelles and Moscow, which he considers the third focal point of Croatia’s new foreign policy. However, Mr Žužul pointed out that this does not mean that he considers Russia a third world power, but an important international relations factor that might be useful to Croatia. As opposed to Račan’s government, the new government will rely more on Washington, and that is, in fact, the biggest change in Croatia’s foreign policy. The first goal, Croatia’s joining the EU, should be realised in 2007, before the end of the new government’s term of office. EU’s positive response to Croatia’s application (the so called avis) should arrive before Easter, and in June the Council of Ministers should confirm Croatia’s candidate status for EU membership. Since in the second half of 2004 the EU will mostly deal with new members, Minister Žužul estimates that it will enter negotiations with Croatia at the beginning of 2005. Date of entry will depend, among other things, on the situation within the Union itself, that will get more complicated with the admission of new members. Mr Žužul is aware that the admission process is neither quick nor simple, but is convinced that the EU will be ready for a new enlargement by 2007. So far, Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania have been mentioned as candidates for the second enlargement, often as the “Croatia and countries in the region” package, but recently there have been talks of the possibility of Croatia being admitted individually. Mr Žužul thinks that the EU calendar does not depend so much on the situation in a particular country, as on the Union itself and the positions of certain countries, and that is why Croatia will direct its foreign policy activities towards strengthening the relations with certain EU countries. The government will continue carrying out the reforms that are the precondition for entering the EU - relations with the Hague tribunal and the extradition of General Gotovina will formally be put under justice’s domain, while Minister Žužul will concentrate on strengthening Croatia’s diplomacy and relations with key EU members. “At this moment, the key states for getting a positive response are Ireland, that will preside over the Union in the next 6 months, and the three traditionally strong members: Germany, France and Great Britain. Also very important for us are Spain and Austria, with which have established solid co-operation, and two of our neighbour countries that are to enter the EU before us: Slovenia and Hungary,” said Minister Žužul. The new government will rely on countries with conservative parties in power – Austria, Italy and Spain – and will seek support from the US. Improving relations with the US will be one of the key goals of the new foreign policy. Recently, while Croatia and the world public protested against the war in Iraq, HZD – then still as an opposition party – gave full support to President George Bush’s policy. Mr Žužul claims that the new government’s support of US policy cannot hurt the process of entering the EU. He cites the exle of Poland, that entered the EU quickly as it did because it relied on the US. “It is wrong to assume that we have to chose either the US or the EU. In all the talks we have had, both with the EU and the US, nobody said ‘now you have to make a choice between the two.’ Every country that received support from the US in approaching the EU benefited from it,” explained Mr Žužul. The new Foreign Minister will try to implement the balance policy, that implies establishing firmer relations with the US, but not the disadvantage of the EU. In practice, it means that the government will consult both the US and the EU on all important issues. “We expect to receive official US support of our EU membership, as well as the recognition of the specificity of our situation,” said Minister Žužul. One of the first texts on which the new government will demonstrate its balance policy will be the Agreement on Non-extradition of American Citizens to ICC, that Račan’s government refused to sign. “First of all, we understand the position of the US and other countries that did not support the establishing of the ICC. That is our position. But we will reach a concrete decision after we talk with the US and the Union. These issues are important for our relations with the US and the EU, and we will talk with both sides to try and find the solution. It rarely happens in diplomacy that you have to choose either ‘yes’ or ‘no’ and suffer consequences because of that,” said Minister Žužul. “For instance, there are countries that have signed bilateral agreements with the US and have not received sanctions from the EU, and there are countries that have not signed them and suffer no US sanctions, on the contrary: they are allowed to take part in projects in Iraq. Croatia is in the worst situation possible: it has not signed the agreements, but has nevertheless received nothing from either side. That is an exle of an unbalanced policy and we will certainly avoid that,” explained Žužul. Croatia’s goal of entering the EU while relying on the US is directly related to the second basic foreign policy goal – joining NATO. Minister Žužul announced that this goal will be realised in 2006, the key moment being the NATO summit in Istanbul in May. “We will double our efforts so that after that we would be able to enter negotiations. It is possible that we will be invited to join NATO in May,” said Žužul. A signal that the government might send before the Summit is sending Croatian soldiers to Iraq and the proposal for NATO to build its military bases in Croatia. “If we join NATO, it is only logical that there would be military bases in the country,” explains Žužul. Minister Žužul is one of the strongest advocates of Croatia becoming a NATO member. He learned from other countries’ experiences that joining NATO speeds up the economic development, as well as the development of democracy and civil society. “In addition to that, we expect the number of tourist visits to Croatia to rise as well. Just look at how the number of tourist visits to Bulgaria rose after it has been invited to join NATO. That is the case with all EU members, they all have NATO military bases. One of modern tourist’s basic criteria when choosing their holiday destination is safety,” explains Žužul. The third foreign policy goal of the new government is also one of the key conditions for joining the EU and NATO, as well as a precondition for realising the first two goals – improving relations with the neighbouring countries, that is, resolving all open issues, namely with Serbia and Slovenia. During pre-election caign, Račan’s government decided to start the preparations for the solving of issues with Slovenia through arbitration. But Sanader’s government will first try to find a solution through bilateral talks. “Arbitration remains an option, but it is not an option we want to start our mandate with. However, if there is no other way to reach a solution, we will go with the arbitrage,” says Žužul. The outcome of the extraordinary elections in Serbia and the announcements by Serbian radicals, who won the most mandates, that the dream of Great Serbia will finally be realised, should not, hopes Žužul, affect the normalisation of relations with Serbia that is already underway. “I would not a priori venture to call the outcome of the elections in Serbia good or bad for our relations. We are willing to continue developing good neighbourly relations with Serbia as long as there are no signs of negativity in Serbia’s relations towards Croatia. Any Belgrade government will meet with the openness from our side in resolving all of the remaining issues,” said Minister Žužul. The remaining two long-term foreign policy goals concern the strengthening of economic diplomacy and the change of Croatia’s image in the rest of the world. Žužul’s predecessor, Minister Tonino Picula, has already taken some steps in that direction. October saw the reestablishment of economic administration, and a month ago a project called “rebranding” was launched. Minister Žužul believes that diplomacy can have an important role in solving the issue of foreign debt and in increasing Croatia’s export. Foreign credits would be reprogrammed through political dialogue, and export would be encouraged through diplomatic action. “We have 70 or so economic allies in embassies around the world, but none of them know what to do, nobody has given them any assignments. They need to have an “umbrella” in the form of a central administration within the Ministry, for instance. The Agency for Promoting Export and Investment will have its offices in all parts of the country, and will be linked through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with representatives around world. In this way, a small entrepreneur from Pula will be provided with information about where to market his products, because he may not have access to this kind of information, while the government has,” says Žužul. He was inspired to launch the project of changing the world’s perception of Croatia by the fact that most of the people are pleasantly surprised when they come to Croatia. This proves, he believes, that have come with some misconceptions about Croatia. “We are one of the few countries with more that 10 operas, but nobody know that. In order to become a serious political partner, as well as a more attractive tourist destination, we need to change the world’s perception of Croatia. We need a well thought out action plan, but these changes will take time. We need to present ourselves as a nation with culture and tradition, as many other transition countries have already done,” explains Žužul. The negative image that HDZ has in the world again became obvious after the party’s victory at the parliamentary elections. All foreign media reported on the victory of the ultranationalist party, which raises the question of how will a party that first needs to change its own image, change Croatia’s image? “Such descriptions are becoming rarer and rarer, which proves that we have already changed our party’s image. Now, instead of ‘nationalist’, the term ‘conservative’ or ‘mildly conservative’ is used. We have analysed the press and in this short time, we have managed to change the image our party used to have,” says Žužul, who himself fell victim to the image of the “USA man”. “This image exists in Croatian media only, I have not heard it abroad. But if it is about Croatia joining the NATO, then I have to say that I have always advocated that. Pro-NATO image maybe, but certainly not that of a USA man,” says Žužul. New government’s foreign policy goals do not, in fact, differ that much from those set and partially realised by Račan’s government. However, Minister Žužul announced that there would be some differences in approach. “This means a more active policy in approaching the EU. Also, NATO was only a declarative goal of Račan’s government, while we have made it a real goal. Generally speaking, we will take a more aggressive approach. We will activate Croatian diplomacy. Right now, 16 ambassadors are on a vacation in Croatia, can you imagine that? That is unbelievable. All recipient countries have something going on for the ambassadors right now, and they are here. I cannot believe that,” said Žužul while leaving his long-desired office at Zrinjevac Park. The government will propose to parliament that Croatia send its troops to Iraq Six months ago, when we talked about ex-government’s foreign policy goals, Minister Žužul said that, if HDZ was in power then, it would certainly find a place for Croatia in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. We asked him if he is still sure of that and what does the new government plan to do. “If we were the party in power then, we would have succeeded, but I think it is realistic to say that we can still succeed. We will try to win that position for Croatia. Lists have been drawn and it will be more difficult now that it was before, but it is not impossible because the war on terrorism is not over yet. And that is a process Croatia must take part in,” says Žužul. That is why the government can be expected to submit a proposal to the parliament to send Croatian troops to Iraq. “Probably, but that is only one of the points. This issue will be considered within the context of two integration processes: our need to take part in war against terrorism, and the process of approaching NATO. All decisions, as well as that about sending Croatian soldiers to Iraq, will be reached within this context,” said Žužul, pointing out that he could not call sending Croatian troops to Iraq in exchange for Croatian companies taking part in the reconstruction of Iraq a “trade”.