Geopolitically (and I promise not to use this word anymore!), Croatia belongs to the countries of the Western Balkans. It is the compromise term invented by the EU for all the countries of ex-Yugoslavia, minus Slovenia, plus Albania. Trying to avoid the negative implications of the term The Balkans, the countries in question prefer using the term SAP Countries. SAP is the abbreviation for Stabilization and Association Process, a policy which the EU has developed after the democratic Big Bang in the 2000, following the elections first in Croatia, then in Serbia. The gist of that policy, for the first time presented during the EU Zagreb Summit in the 2000, is to open a perspective of the EU membership for the respective countries which at the time did not have any kind of contractual relation with the EU. Subsequently developed policy provides each country with the tailor-made new generation, Europe Agreement, called Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), implementation of which is supposed to bring each country to eventual EU membership, always according to its own merits and capabilities. The EU Nice Summit document has granted the SAP countries a status of potential candidates, a regatta and not a convoy principle of accession. It provides the process with certain amount of money to fund the potentiality, but offers no specific dates of entry at all. Vaguely, these countries also fit into the EU enlargement scheme.
SAA offers to these countries relatively more than the classical Association Agreement offerd to the Central and Eastern European countries in the nineties of the 20th century. At the same time the EU is many times more tightfisted in funding the rapprochement of the SAP countries. For example, the three remaining candidate countries Bulgaria, Rumania and Turkey can count on about 3 billion Euros fund for the needs of their accession processes until the 2007, while the five SAP countries can count on about 700 million Euros, with the projection of further decrease in the next five years. The reason is that the EU members are still spending enormous amounts for the stabilization component of the process, apparently irrespectively of the process'' association component. In the three out of five countries there is either NATO or EU military and/or police peace-keeping presence (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro and Macedonia). Some of the countries would hardly manage to sustain present peace and stability without the international presence and heavy political and administrative engagement. However, the EU Thessalonica Summit this summer has brought about some new and more encouraging policy instruments, like European partnerships which are about be defined and developed these days. But this is all like in the holly Gospel: Those who have, will be given more…
So far the SAA has been concluded with Macedonia and Croatia three and two years ago respectively. And so far Croatia is the only country of the process which early this year has applied for the membership. In terms of its economic performances, its administrative capabilities and efficiency and its strong civil society, Croatia sticks out of the family. Fast and efficient implementation of the SAA (more than 60% in only two out of six years of the implementation period) and the economic indicators placing us above half of the present candidate countries, prompted the Croatian Government in February this year to apply for the candidate status. A month ago the Prime Minister Racan has presented the EC with the Government''s answers to more than 4000 questions on the basis of which the EC would value Croatia''s readiness to embark successfully on the accession negotiations process. As we speak the EC is assessing the answers. This is the expected calendar of our ambitions:
• In April 2004 the EC would issue its positive avis to Croatia''s application;
• In June/July the Council of Ministers would give a mandate to the EC to start accession negotiations with Croatia, by which decision Croatia would join in its status the candidates who remained for the second wave of enlargement in 2007, Bulgaria and Rumania;
• In October 2004, start of the accession negotiations;
• In the horizon of years 2007/8 we expect to join the EU.
Why do we believe that such an optimistic dynamics is perfectly feasible? First, as Europe Agreement of new generation the SAA contains regulations whose timely implementation will bring us to the height of about the half of thirty or so chapters needed to be concluded prior to the eventual accession. The up to date dynamics of rapid and successful the implementation and the respective legal and practical reforms are clearly reflecting our administrative capability in meeting the demands of the agreement. Our market has been almost entirely harmonized with the common European market. In only two years time we have managed to create a respective administrative network. Had we had been assisted by Brussels in the same way as the present candidate countries, then, have no doubts that the work would have been done in time. After having responded and handed over the answers to the EC questionnaire, our Ministry for the European Integration has already started to work on the Plan of Action. After all, if Slovakia did it in only two years time, after getting rid of Mr. Meciar government, why should we be late? Having achieved the candidate status Croatia will qualify for the accession funds and for all the accession instruments that are not presently available. Except for some individual EU member countries (UK particularly) who were assisting us in good faith, most of the reforms in the last four years have been and continue to be financed from our own budget. This seems to be pretty rosy perspective. Is it maybe too good to become true? We''ll see.
Two fundamental conditions should meet in the perfect conjunction. First condition is intrinsically national, Croatian. The second is European. Even with much better economic performances Croatia is lagging behind the acceding countries in meeting political, so called Copenhagen criteria. There are three specific preconditions whose fulfillment will allow Croatia for positive avis in April:
1. Full cooperation with the ICTY:
2. Improvement in the process of minority refugee return and the repossession of their property;
3. Efficient moves in direction of a comprehensive reform of the judiciary.
So far, the record on the Copenhagen criteria has not been bad at all, but neither sufficiently good. The last report of the Hague prosecutor, la simpatica signora Swizzera, whom this house hosted about month ago, was all but bad for Croatia. Her only remaining complaint is that the GOC has failed to arrest and transfer to The Hague a fugitive general Gotovina, for whom the government claims not to know his whereabouts. It is generally expected that the new indictments against Croatian officials will arrive as soon as January. The GOC will therefore have the opportunity to demonstrate its allegiance to the cooperation and to country''s Constitutional Law on Cooperation, irrespectively of the failure to arrest the above mentioned fugitive.
The Serb minority return and their property rights should not represent a great obstacle either. It is a successfully ongoing process which does not require revolutionary decisions any more; just a slight adjustment to the Constitution as well as vigilant attention of the government.
The comprehensive Judiciary Reform Program has already been set in motion. The government will need to show high resolve and dedication, and everything is going to be fine. The EU cannot expect us to be just perfect in advance, although we must become aware that we are expected to do more and better then our predecessors in the accession process.
Don''t worry, I haven''t forgotten about the parliamentary elections 8 days ago. The elections of Sunday November 23 have changed the political landscape again. Instead of having centre-left coalition we are going to have a centre-right coalition, or possibly a minority government. Croatia has ceased to exist as historic country. For us the big history is over. I believe that that change in itself will not jeopardize Croatia''s EU prospects, not even the above described dynamics of accession. Even our accession to the EU will not be a historic event. The lucky ones would enjoy the history next year. We would just sneak in with no fanfare, except at home.
And just when I was about to say: ''And off we go!'' I should explain the other fundamental condition, the European one.
That one is that EU should not act too tired of the enlargement process, nor suffer of the new emerging side-effect or disease - the Balkans Fatigue. (This theme would require another evening.) Both of these are not improbable. Therefore the new Croatian governing team must quickly develop very strong sense of urgency, and in meticulous nuances meet the political criteria as soon as in the first two months of the 2004. Their execution must be of crystal clear cut and of no hesitation. Otherwise, with 10 members more, the accession process for Croatia will inevitably be more complex and complicated. We would run a risk to be set aside, and let to the merely bureaucratic processes defined by the SAP, and to the political laziness of les fatigues.
As the first sign of the enlargement (+ the Balkans) fatigue we can often hear the following questions: ''Would Croatia''s successful application and the start of negotiations as early as in Sept/Oct. 2004 cause a negative impact on the rest of the Western Balkans? Would it create a new division line in Europe? Wouldn''t it be better to make Croatia become a leader in the region, and one nice day after all of them have settled their mutual and internal problems let them in all together?''
These are false dilemmas. Unless we abandon the enlargement idea, the fundamental principles of the enlargement have to remain the same for all. Otherwise the enlargement will not present an extremely important driving force, as it has been for both the candidates and the EU proper. Also failing to treat each country by its own merits will exclude a positive element of competition or white envy among the countries concerned. During the last decade, especially during the last 4 years euroenthusiasm has been a mighty incentive for both the governmental structures and for citizens of Croatia to accept what have been rather radical economic, social and legislative reforms. That enthusiasm has led to the accelerated processes of regional normalization and reconciliation among the yesterday''s enemies, and to rather comprehensive regional cooperation. Maybe that enthusiasm has been foolishly romanticist one, a matter of identity and identification with the common European values and history… Maybe, but it works.
Abandoning it would be very dangerous. Take it away, and you will provoke euroskepticism, or even worse - euro-defeatism. The EU is about establishing and spreading a common set of values, a common rule of law. Instead of rule of law we would again have the rule of chaos. The wish of peoples and their elites to achieve that must not be put in question because of the fatigue. The hypothetical loss of clear individual perspective of EU membership in the countries concerned would quickly backlash on the EU. Here in London you should not need specific explanation on how would that happen.
Having exited from the flames and ashes of both an international and national conflict, Croatia is acting as a beacon of democratic changes and successes of reforms in the region. That light must not be extinguished. Maintaining the light in Zagreb should become a must for both Brussels and Zagreb. No doubt, Belgrade, Podgorica, Sarajevo, Skopje and Tirana will rejoice.
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